I think that we are seeing the emergence of a new product category that expands the market for mobile computing (i.e., netbooks & laptops coexist) rather than a new product category that replaces the laptop. Netbooks are great for mobile computing and communication but their small disk size, limited internal memory, and relatively slow processing speeds make them underpowered for many users.
Cost conscious enterprise users, that do not have heavy computing needs, will buy netbooks. We will also see enterprises move to data center computing with virtualized operating systems on netbooks as a way to provide greater control over data leakage.
Lastly, mobile power users will own a laptop, netbook, and smartphone. For short trips, the laptop will remain in the office while the netbook/smartphone travels on the road. The netbook will be used for email, web browsing, light word processing and spreadsheet manipulating. The mobile phone will primarily be used voice, IM, email, twitter.
The interesting question is whether or not the smart phone becomes powerful enough that it can replace the netbook. This might occur if projected keyboards and projected screens become popular on the smartphone. However, in the next few years, I don’t see this happening.
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